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Thursday, March 6 will be Across the Curriculum Day at Springfield High School. This year's theme is "the future". Lots of teachers are participating, and they'll all be bringing their own ideas about the theme. In the library, our theme for the day will be "Predicting the future."
When we say "prediction" we don't mean the kind that uses a crystal ball. We're talking about the kind of prediction that is based on science. It happens all the time, especially in science fiction. It can be very interesting to find out who predicted something, and how close to the truth they turned out to be. Surprisingly, science fiction can be very close to the truth. It can also miss it by a wide margin. Below, you'll find some of the most interesting accurate and failed predictions. HALL OF FAME These are the predictions that came true, that ones that will really amaze you. 1. Jules Verne in From the Earth to the Moon, 1865- Verne correctly predicted that the first manned mission to the moon would be crewed by three Americans, and would launch from Florida. 2. Jules Verne in 20,000 Leagues Under the Sea, 1870- Verne predicted the use of scuba diving equipment and submarines that could be livable. 3. Edward Bellamy in Looking Backward, 1888- Bellamy predicted women serving in the military, computers, electric lighting, and even credit cards. 4. H.G. Wells in Anticipations, 1901- In this book, Wells predicted networks of railroads and highways, and that Western Europe would become politically united. 5. Karel Capek in Rossum's Universal Robots, 1920- Capek created the idea of machines that would take the place of human workers, and named them robots. 6. Aldous Huxley in Brave New World, 1932- Huxley predicted test tube babies. 7. Arthur C. Clarke, 1945- Clarke predicted that networks of satellites could be used for communication. 8. George Orwell in 1984, 1949- In 1984, the government is able to monitor its citizens by widespread use of hidden cameras. 9. Ray Bradbury in Fahrenheit 451, 1951- In Bradbury's future world, home theaters and wall-mounted TVs were common. 10. Oil Storm, 2005- This documentary predicted the massive destruction if a hurricane hit New Orleans, one year before Hurricane Katrina. HALL OF SHAME Most predictions fail, but some fail so badly they become legendary. Here's a few. "We don't like their sound, and guitar music is on the way out." Decca Recording Company on the Beatles, 1962 "X-rays will be proven a hoax." William Thomson, 1899 "It will be years- not in my time- before a woman will become Prime Minister." Margaret Thatcher, 1974. Thatcher was elected Prime Minister five years later. "Ours has been the first, and doubtless the last, to visit this profitless locale." Lt. Joseph Ives on the Grand Canyon, 1861 "There is not the slightest indication that nuclear energy will ever be obtainable." Alfred Einstein, 1932 Star Trek predicted human cloning and genetic engineering by the 1990s In 2001: A Space Odyssey, Arthur C. Clarke predicted that commercial space flight would be available by 2001. "There is practically no chance communications satellites will be used to provide better telephone, telegraph, television, or radio services inside the U.S." FCC Commissioner, 1961 "A rocket will never be able to leave Earth's atmosphere." New York Times, 1936 "Nuclear powered vacuum cleaners will probably be a reality in ten years." Alex Lewt, 1955 "The cinema is little more than a fad." Charlie Chaplin, 1916 "It's a great invention, but who would want to use it anyway?" Rutherford B. Hayes on the telephone, 1876 Dewey Beats Truman- Chicago Daily Tribune headline the day after the 1948 presidential election. Truman won. "I think there is a world market for maybe five computers." Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943 "There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home." Ken Olson, 1977 You can find some links related to future predictions here. |